Swing State Odds
At a rally in Georgia, President Donald Trump continued to make baseless claims about the 2020 election being “rigged,” drawing false comparisons at one point between President-elect Joe Biden’s performance in swing states and that of the last two Democratic presidential nominees:
All three major US indices soared on Wednesday as the odds swung to favor Joe Biden after he took Michigan - a key swing state. Biden has likely pocketed 264 out of the 270 electoral votes that are. Swing State Election Odds Saturday, 12 p.m. Joe Biden is the President-Elect of the United States. Most media outlets called Pennsylvania for Biden on Saturday morning, giving him 273 electoral votes, enough to clinch the presidency. Indeed, the state has only backed a losing candidate on two occasions since 1896: the GOP's Thomas Dewey in 1944 and Richard Nixon in 1960. That boded well for Trump until this summear. Ohio had been a tightly-fought swing state since 2000, but he easily won by 8% in 2016 and he held a smaller but still notable lead in June.
Swing states are those in which neither major political party holds a lock on the outcome of presidential elections. The term can also be used to describe a state whose electoral votes have a high probability of being the deciding factor in a presidential election. Swing States: Live Predictions. In alphabetical order, we'll show you all the swing states and their live probabilities. Remember, these graphs are LIVE and update any time the market moves. Bookmark this page and you'll know each state's exact probability.
- Trump said Biden beat Hillary Clinton “in the swing states, but she beat him everywhere else.” That’s false. Biden outperformed Clinton in every state — not just swing states.
- He also wrongly said “President Obama beat Biden all over the country, except in some of the swing states.” When comparing the candidates by percentage of total votes, Obama did better than Biden in most states, including four of the six swing states being contested by Trump. And Biden would still win the presidency without the two other contested states.
The president visited Valdosta, Georgia, on Dec. 5 to campaign for the state’s two Republican senators who were forced into runoff elections against their Democratic challengers. But the president spent most of his 90-minute speech repeating false, misleading and unsupported claims about the election that he made just a few days earlier in an online video that he billed as perhaps “the most important speech I’ve ever made.”
At the rally, Trump insisted that he won Georgia (“You know we won Georgia, just so you understand”) and Wisconsin (“Well, actually I won Wisconsin”) — even though bothstates have certified Biden as the winner after recounts. Georgia counted its ballots three times.
Trump also repeated bogus claims about secret, illegal ballot “dumps” in bothstates that we have already debunked. This time, the president suggested that the ballot “dumps” explain what he described as a “very interesting” and “statistically impossible” anomaly in some swing states won by Biden. (His campaign has gone to court to challenge the results in Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona.)
After correctly noting that he won Florida, Ohio, South Carolina and Iowa, the president said this:
Trump, Dec. 5: And we won all over the place. And many of these swing states, you know, it’s a very interesting statistic. President Obama beat Biden all over the country, except in some of the swing states where Biden beat him badly. How does that work? And they say it’s statistically impossible. He beat crooked Hillary. Think of this. He beat crooked Hillary in the swing states, but she beat him everywhere else. Let me tell you, this election was rigged.
All of that is wrong.
“There is no such thing as a ‘statistical impossibility,’ for starters,” Charles Stewart III, a political science professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, told us in an email.
Biden vs. Clinton
Using Dave Leip’s Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, we looked at the 2016 results and found that Biden outperformed Clinton in every state — not just swing states – both by the number and the percentage of votes. (The unofficial 2020 results were as of Dec. 8.)
Stewart said he prefers comparing candidates by percentage of votes, but without minor party candidates’ vote totals. By that measure, we found Clinton outperformed Biden in only six states (California, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Nevada and New York) and Washington, D.C. Only one of them — Nevada — is a swing state where Trump has been contesting the results. Clinton barely edged Biden there, garnering 51.29% of the Nevada vote, compared with Biden’s 51.22%.
In his own analysis of the 2020 and 2016 elections for us, Stewart said he found “what political scientists would call a ‘uniform swing’ for Biden nationwide,” with some minor variations.
“[T]he way elections work, it would be unlikely a winning candidate would do better (compared to 4 years before) in only the close states and not the uncompetitive states,” Stewart said.
Stewart provided this scatterplot that shows a “uniform swing” toward Biden.
“There are 51 circles, one for each state plus DC. The diagonal line is where every state would be if the vote share for Biden = the vote share for Clinton,” Stewart said, explaining his chart. “As you can see, the circles are sitting mostly right on top of the line, which is consistent with Biden being just a few points ahead of Clinton in almost all the states.”
By any measure, Trump’s wrong to say that Clinton beat Biden everywhere, except swing states.
Biden vs. Obama
We also reviewed the 2012 and 2008 election results and found that Barack Obama did have a higher percentage of the total vote than Biden in most states: 29 states in 2012 and 37 states (plus Washington, D.C.) in 2008. But Obama also did better than Biden in four of the six swing states now being contested by Trump — Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania — in 2008 and 2012. As a percentage of the vote, Biden did better than Obama only in Georgia and Arizona — two other states where Trump is contesting the results.
However, even without the electoral votes in Georgia (16) and Arizona (11), Biden would still have enough electoral votes to beat Trump. The unofficial election results show Biden with 306 electoral votes to Trump’s 232. It takes 270 electoral votes to become president.
By vote totals, Biden did better than Obama in nearly all states — although that’s not surprising since there were also far more people who voted in 2020 (158,507,629) than had voted eight years ago in 2012 (129,237,642) and 12 years ago in 2008 (131,473,705):
- 2012: Biden received more votes than Obama did in 2012 in all but five states – Mississippi, Iowa, North Dakota, Ohio, West Virginia. Biden did better than Obama in all the swing states that Trump has been contesting: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia.
- 2008: Biden received more votes than Obama did in 2008 in all but 11 states. Obama did better in two swing states that Trump has been contesting: Michigan and Wisconsin.
So, no matter how one looks at the election results, Trump is also wrong to say that “President Obama beat Biden all over the country, except in some of the swing states.”
By total votes, Biden did better than Obama in most states, including swing states. By vote percentage, Obama did better than Biden in most states, including in most swing states.
Once again, the president is peddling false information that fails to support his baseless claim that the election was “rigged.”
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Swing State Watchis an occasional series about false and misleading political messages in key states that will help decide the 2020 presidential election.
This fact check is available at IFCN’s 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. Clickherefor more.
November 17 Update: While some battleground states are dealing with recounts and legal issues surrounding the handling of ballots, there are not really any new odds surfacing for the 2020 Presidential Election. There are, however, some lines available for the remaining Georgia Senate Runoff taking place in early January. Of course the earlier you place your bet, the bigger the payout, but you do have right up until the vote on Jan. 5th, 2021.
In the United States, the outcome of the Presidential Election is determined by which candidate meets the minimum threshold of 270 electoral votes and then wins the majority of these votes. It is possible for a Presidential candidate to win the popular vote but lose the Presidency due to the electoral vote distribution. Because of this constant intrigue, multiple legitimate offshore sportsbooks offer odds related to electoral votes by state.
In the US, each state is worth a specified number of votes in the Electoral College. Naturally, the states with larger numbers of electoral votes are the prized destinations that each candidate attempts to win over, though the biggest states are typical party stalwarts (i.e. CA always going Democrat while Texas always goes Republican).
Here we take a look at each state and which candidate they are currently leaning towards, and we will also discuss key swing states in the 2020 Presidential election, also known as battleground states, and provide some links to monitoring these states as the election progresses. You can visit our page about the Vegas odds for 2020 state primary elections for more information about betting on state primaries.
We also include information on where you can legally place bets on the current Electoral College odds. This information will be helpful to you should you decide to participate in the various state-related betting lines available at any legal online sportsbook offering political wagering.
Where To Bet - Sportsbooks Offering Odds On Who Will Win The Electoral College Vote For Each State
| Site | Bonus | Rating/5 | USA | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 50% Max $250 | 4.5 | ||
| 2 | 50% Max $1,000 | 4.4 | ||
| 3 | 100% Max $1,000 | 4.4 | ||
| 3 | 75% Max $1,000 | 4.1 |
Current 2020 Electoral Odds By State
The following odds are all from BetOnline, which currently has lines up for all 50 states in the 2020 Presidential election. You can get the best odds - and the best payouts! - by making your picks early. Check back here frequently, as every state's updated lines will be posted as soon as they are released.
Note: The odds right now presume that Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee and that Donald Trump will remain in office and be on the GOP general election ticket.
Alabama
- Republican -2500
- Democrat +1400
Alaska
- Republican -700
- Democrat +500
Arizona
- Democrat -130
- Republican +100 (EVEN)
Arkansas
- Republican -1000
- Democrat +600
California
- Democrat -1500
- Republican +1000
Colorado
- Democrat -900
- Republican +600
Connecticut
- Democrat -1300
- Republican +600
Delaware
- Democrat -1600
- Republican +1100
Florida
- Democrat -120
- Republican -110
Georgia
- Republican -220
- Democrat +180
Hawaii
- Democrat -2500
- Republican +1400
Idaho
- Republican -3300
- Democrat +1600
Illinois
- Democrat -1000
- Republican +700
Indiana
- Republican -900
- Democrat +600
Iowa
- Republican -260
- Democrat +200
Kansas
- Republican -1200
- Democrat +900
Kentucky
- Republican -2000
- Democrat +1200
Louisiana
- Republican -1600
- Democrat +1100
Maine
- Democrat -400
- Republican +300
Maryland
- Democrat -1500
- Republican +1000
Massachusetts
- Democrat -1600
- Republican +1100
Michigan
- Democrat -225
- Republican +185
Minnesota
- Democrat -180
- Republican +150
Mississippi
- Republican -1600
- Democrat +1100
Missouri
- Republican -900
- Democrat +600
Montana
- Republican -800
- Democrat +550
Nebraska
- Republican -1600
- Democrat +1100
Nevada
- Democrat -300
- Republican +240
New Hampshire
- Democrat -240
- Republican +190
New Jersey
- Democrat -1100
- Republican +800
New Mexico
- Democrat -700
- Republican +500
New York
- Democrat -1100
- Republican +800
North Carolina
- Republican -150
- Democrat +120
North Dakota
- Republican -2000
- Democrat +1200
Ohio
- Republican -215
- Democrat +175
Oklahoma
- Republican -2500
- Democrat +1400
Oregon
- Democrat -900
- Republican +600
Pennsylvania
- Democrat -165
- Republican +135
Rhode Island
- Democrat -1500
- Republican +1000
South Carolina
- Republican -1000
- Democrat +700
South Dakota
- Republican -2500
- Democrat +1400
Tennessee
- Republican -1500
- Democrat +1000
Texas
- Republican -450
- Democrat +325
Utah
- Republican -1000
- Democrat +700
Vermont
- Democrat -1500
- Republican +1000
Virginia
- Democrat -750
- Republican +550
Washington
- Democrat -1500
- Republican +1000
West Virginia
- Republican -2500
- Democrat +1400
Wisconsin
- Democrat -165
- Republican +135
Wyoming
- Republican -3300
- Democrat +1600
Alabama
- Republican -4000
- Democrat +1000
Alaska
- Republican -900
- Democrat +500
Arizona
- Democrat -180
- Republican +135
Arkansas
- Republican -1100
- Democrat +575
California
- Democrat -2000
- Republican +800
Colorado
- Democrat -850
- Republican +475
Connecticut
- Democrat -3000
- Republican +900
Delaware
- Democrat -3000
- Republican +900
Florida
- Republican -120
- Democrat -110
Georgia
- Republican -220
- Democrat +165
Hawaii
- Democrat -6000
- Republican +1200
Idaho
- Republican -4000
- Democrat +1000
Illinois
- Democrat -3000
- Republican +900
Indiana
- Republican -2000
- Democrat +800
Iowa
- Republican -250
- Democrat +185
Kansas
- Republican -2000
- Democrat +800
Kentucky
- Republican -3000
- Democrat +900
Louisiana
- Republican -1600
- Democrat +700
Maine
- Democrat -500
- Republican +330
Maryland
- Democrat -3300
- Republican +950
Massachusetts
- Democrat N/A
- Republican N/A
Michigan
- Democrat -250
- Republican +185
Minnesota
- Democrat -220
- Republican +165
Mississippi
- Republican -2000
- Democrat +800
Missouri
- Republican -1000
- Democrat +550
Montana
- Republican -1000
- Democrat +550
Nebraska
- Republican -3000
- Democrat +900
Nevada
- Democrat -500
- Republican +330
New Hampshire
- Democrat -250
- Republican +185
New Jersey
- Democrat -1800
- Republican +725
New Mexico
- Democrat -1000
- Republican +550
New York
- Democrat -3000
- Republican +900
North Carolina
- Democrat -130
- Republican +100 (EVEN)
North Dakota
- Republican -3000
- Democrat +900
Ohio
- Republican -240
- Democrat +175
Oklahoma
- Republican -3000
- Democrat +900
Oregon
- Democrat -1200
- Republican +600
Pennsylvania
- Democrat -190
- Republican +145
Rhode Island
- Democrat -3000
- Republican +900
South Carolina
- Republican -1400
- Democrat +650
South Dakota
- Republican -4000
- Democrat +1000
Swing State Odds Calculator
Tennessee
- Republican -3000
- Democrat +900
Texas
- Republican -360
- Democrat +250
Utah
- Republican -1900
- Democrat +750
Vermont
- Democrat -6000
- Republican +1200
Virginia
- Democrat -900
- Republican +500
Washington
- Democrat -2000
- Republican +800
West Virginia
Swing State Odds Game
- Republican -4000
- Democrat +1000
Wisconsin
- Democrat -150
- Republican +115
Wyoming
- Republican -3000
- Democrat +900
Electoral College Predictions For 2020 Presidential Election
The leanings of each individual state can fluctuate right up through Election Day. However, there are some instances where a candidate has established a safe state for their party by obtaining a majority of the support from that region.
Below is a listing of those states that are considered ‘safe’ for each candidate and can be reasonably predicted to vote in a specific direction. We have also listed the toss-up states that could go either direction.
States That Voted For Trump In 2016
Trump secured support in the following states. We’ve broken down the list into a few categories showing the overarching strength of Republican support, which should give bettors some insight into how these states will vote in 2020.
Solid Trump States – Solid Republican States
- Alabama - 9 electoral votes
- Arkansas - 6 electoral votes
- Idaho - 4 electoral votes
- Louisiana - 8 electoral votes
- Kentucky - 8 electoral votes
- Mississippi - 6 electoral votes
- Nebraska - 4 electoral votes
- North Dakota - 3 electoral votes
- Oklahoma - 7 electoral votes
- West Virginia - 5 electoral votes
- Wyoming - 3 electoral votes
States Likely To Vote Trump – States Likely To Vote Republican
- Alaska - 3 electoral votes
- Indiana - 11 electoral votes
- Kansas - 6 electoral votes
- Missouri - 10 electoral votes
- Montana - 3 electoral votes
- Nebraska - 1 electoral vote
- South Dakota - 3 electoral votes
- Tennessee - 11 electoral votes
- Texas - 38 electoral votes
- Utah - 6 electoral votes
States Leaning Trump – States Leaning Republican
- South Carolina with 9 electoral votes
States That Voted For Hillary In 2016
The following states were predicted to be in the Clinton camp for the 2016 Presidential election, which can indicate a tendency to vote Democrat in 2020. However, given Trump's polarizing nature and populist support, one or more of these DNC strongholds could teeter over to the other side come the November general.
Solid Democrat States
- California - 55 electoral votes
- DC - 3 electoral votes
- Hawaii - 4 electoral votes
- Massachusetts - 11 electoral votes
- Maryland - 10 electoral votes
- New York - 29 electoral votes
- Vermont - 3 electoral votes
States Likely To Vote Democrat
- Delaware - 3 electoral votes
- Illinois - 20 electoral votes
- New Jersey - 14 electoral votes
- Rhode Island - 4 electoral votes
- Washington State - 12 electoral votes
States Leaning Towards Voting Democrat
- Connecticut - 7 electoral votes
- Maine - 1 electoral vote
- Oregon - 7 electoral votes
- Minnesota - 10 electoral votes
- Wisconsin - 10 electoral votes
Toss Up States In The 2016 Presidential Election
These states were undecided before the 2016 election, with neither candidate securing the majority of support. Several of these states were considered swing states or battleground states, and both candidates campaigned heavily in them in the last days before the Big Vote. Below you will find information specifically discussing potential 2020 Presidential election swing states.
- Arizona - 11 electoral votes
- Colorado - 9 electoral votes
- Florida - 29 electoral votes
- Georgia - 16 electoral votes
- Iowa - 6 electoral votes
- Maine - 3 electoral votes
- Michigan - 16 electoral votes
- New Hampshire - 4 electoral votes
- New Mexico - 5 electoral votes
- Nevada - 6 electoral votes
- North Carolina - 15 electoral votes
- Ohio - 18 electoral votes
- Pennsylvania - 20 electoral votes
- Virginia - 13 electoral votes
What Are The Swing States For the 2020 Presidential Election?
Swing states, battleground states, and toss ups - Regardless of what we call them, they often determine the results of the Presidential election. No candidate or political party enjoys overwhelming support in these regions, and so they get a lot of attention as the general election nears.
11 regions have been designated as the 2020 swing states in the Presidential election, with three of these states considered to be ‘key’ battleground states. Securing support in these is critical for all Presidential candidates.
Swing states Florida and Ohio have determined the results of the race in recent election cycles, and they are always a crown jewel in the Electoral College process. Following is a list of the designated swing states for 2020, with the three key battleground states listed first.
You may notice that all of the swing states are also listed on the list of toss up states with the exception of Wisconsin. Wisconsin has recently been moved to ‘leaning Democrat’ status, but the Democrat lead there is not significant enough to remove the state from still being considered a swing state.
Swing State Odds
- Florida
- Ohio
- Pennsylvania
- Wisconsin
- New Hampshire
- Minnesota
- Iowa
- Michigan
- Nevada
- Colorado
- North Carolina
Vegas Odds On State Electoral Votes
Swing State Odds Golf
Betting on which direction a state will vote has become a part of the political betting lines available on the 2020 presidential election. Some sportsbooks provide odds on every single state, while others may only include toss up or swing states. This makes sense as there really isn’t much risk in predicting that a solid red or blue state will vote in their typical fashion.
Swing State Odds College Football
Some of the state-related wagering options you’ll find at our recommended sportsbooks offering political betting lines are things like what percentage of total states will be won by each party, which candidate or party will receive the popular vote in a given state, and which candidate or party will receive the electoral vote in a given state.