Political Odds
Election Betting Odds
By Maxim Lott and John Stossel
- Nov 03, 2020 The big picture is clear: The overall electoral environment favors Democrats, which is one reason they have decent odds of controlling the presidency, Senate and House (a 72 percent chance.
- “Politics” is an actual market you can explore today and whether you are betting on Donald Trump’s reelection as U.S. President, Brexit, or Mexit, there are quite a few entertaining options to choose from. Political Betting Sites. These are the best sportsbooks that we recommend as of 2021 based on bonuses, odds and overall betting.
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Odds for this page are averaged between FTX.com, Betfair and Smarkets
Betfair Political Odds
20.1% +0.0% |
15.1% +0.0% |
10.6% -0.1% |
5.7% +0.0% |
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0.4% -0.1% |
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25.6% |
54.0% +0.0% |
42.5% +0.0% |
3.5% |
22.4% 0.2% |
11.3% +0.0% |
10.0% 0.1% |
7.5% 0.1% |
4.8% +0.0% |
4.1% 0.1% |
3.7% -0.2% |
2.9% +0.0% |
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2.5% 0.3% |
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2.0% +0.0% |
1.6% +0.0% |
0.8% +0.0% |
16.0% |
By John Stossel | By Nate Silver | By Burton Malkiel | By Maajid Nawaz | By Yeonmi Park |
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About these odds and FAQ By Maxim Lott and John Stossel Odds update every minute
Political Odds 2020
Copyright 2020, FTX.com
Political Odds 2020
Our 2020 forecasts — presidential, Senate, House — are all now officially frozen, meaning we won’t be ingesting any new polls or updating the odds in any race. Instead, follow along on our Election Day Live blog as we track results in real-time. At the end of a loooooong campaign, here’s where we stand: Joe Biden is favored to beat President Trump (though Trump still has a 1-in-10 chance); Democrats have a 3-in-4 shot at taking back the Senate; and the House will most likely remain under Democratic control (Democrats might even expand their majority by a few seats). The big picture is clear: The overall electoral environment favors Democrats, which is one reason they have decent odds of controlling the presidency, Senate and House (a 72 percent chance, according to our forecast). Of course, there’s always the chance of a polling error, which tends to be correlated from state to state when it happens. Trump needs a bigger-than-normal error in his favor, but the real possibility that polls are underestimating Trump’s support is why he still has a path to win reelection. A 10 percent chance of winning is not a zero percent chance. In fact, that is roughly the same odds that it’s raining in downtown Los Angeles. And it does rain there. (Downtown L.A. has about 36 rainy days per year, or about a 1-in-10 shot of a rainy day.)
Political Oddschecker
- According to our final presidential forecast, Pennsylvania is the most likely tipping-point state, and a lot of Biden’s chances in the Electoral College hinge on what happens in the Keystone State. He leads Trump there by about 5 points in our polling average, but it’s not as large a margin as Biden might like. Last week, we gamed out what would happen if Biden lost Pennsylvania but won other Midwestern states like Wisconsin. (TL;DR there’s no clear Plan B for Biden.) Want to run through your own hypothetical scenarios? You now can with our interactive forecast that lets you explore the ways each candidate could win. We’re hoping to use this tool ourselves on election night to better understand Biden and Trump’s paths to victory, especially if the outstanding vote takes a while to be counted.
- Unless Trump or Biden has a really good night on Nov. 3, it’s pretty unlikely, though, that either of them will hit the 270 electoral votes needed to win by the end of the night. That doesn’t necessarily mean, though, that we won’t have a pretty good idea of who won. It’s all going to come down to how close some of the key battleground races are and whether a representative share of the vote can be reported, which won’t always be possible given the challenges of the pandemic. We’re tracking when we expect results in every state.